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You're listening to the Global Front, and I'm your host, Ivara Hassan. It's Friday, March 13th, 2026, and we're exactly two weeks into what historians may one day call the Great Middle Eastern War. Fourteen days ago, the world woke up to Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Epic Fury. President Trump, back in the Oval Office, authorized a strike package of seven B-2 South bombers and over 125 aircraft to do what no administration has done before, attempt to permanently dismantle Iran's nuclear program. Today we aren't just looking at a conflict between two nations. We're witnessing a regional collapse. In the last two weeks, we've seen the map of the Middle East and the Caucasus change more than it has in the last 50 years. This is not a conversation about who is right. It's a conversation about what is actually happening on the ground. We have the data from the UN, the IEA, and the ministries of half a dozen nations, from the drone strikes in Nakchivan to the total paralysis of the world's most vital waterway, here is the state of the global front. But let's start with the cold hard numbers. According to verified data from human rights organizations and preliminary UN reports, in the first 10 days alone, over 4,300 people have been killed. While military facilities in 167 cities were targeted, civilian casualties are mounting. At least 390 civilians are confirmed dead. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports that up to 3.2 million Iranians are now internally displaced, which is roughly 1 million households fleeing major urban centers like Tehran for the north and rural provinces. But there is one detail which is often missed: the casualties of interception. Many injuries in neighboring countries are the result of falling debris. In the UAE alone, 131 people have been injured, not by direct hits, but by shrapnel from successful interceptions of ballistic missiles. One of the most significant developments is how this war has expanded to countries that are not combatants. In an effort to raise the cost of the war for the international community, Iran has launched what analysts call a retaliation wave across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates has faced the brunt of a drone campaign. Reports indicate that 189 ballistic missiles and 941 drones were launched toward UAE territory. While the interception rate is high, 876 drones were neutralized, the debris has caused fires at Jabel Ali Port and damaged Terminal 3 at Dubai International Airport. Kuwait has reported intercepting 178 missiles and 384 drones. Qatar, despite its traditional role as a mediator, has seen over 100 missiles enter its airspace, leading to the first significant disruptions in global LNG, liquid natural gas shipments. Bahraini officials confirmed the destruction of 73 missiles and 91 drones. These attacks target infrastructure like desalination plants, which are the lifeblood of these desert nations. Now we turn to the South Caucasus. On March 5th, a new front opened. Drones launched from Iranian territory struck the Nakchivan Autonomous Republic, an exclave of Azerbaijan. One drone hit the terminal of Nakhchevan International Airport, and another landed near a school in the village of Shaqarabad. Two civilians were injured. Here comes the neutrality question. Azerbaijan has maintained a neutral stance, even offering condolences for the death of the Iranian leader earlier this month. Yet, the proximity of Nakhchevan to the border, just 10 kilometers, makes it a flashpoint. If these strikes continue, Azerbaijan may be forced to abandon neutrality. Under the Shusha Declaration, Turkey is obligated to support Azerbaijan's security. This could lead to a northern front that stretches the conflict into Europe's doorstep. While the missiles fly, the global economy is suffering a cardiac arrest in this trade of hormones. As of this week, maritime traffic in this trade has slowed to a near total halt. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 20% of global consumption, normally passes through this 21-mile-wide gap. That flow is now at less than 10% of the pre-conflict levels. Oil prices have popped back above $100 per barrel. Experts from Novama and Bloomberg warned that if this closure lasts another four to eight weeks, we could see $150 US dollars per barrel. To combat this, the IEA has authorized the largest oil release in history. 400 million barrels will be pumped into the market from strategic reserves. The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels. This is a desperate measure to prevent a global depression while the energy heart of the world is blocked. But as we look at the maps and the numbers, we have to talk about the ghost in the machine, the leadership crisis in Tehran. On March 9th, the world received a definitive question. The assembly of experts officially named Moshtaba Hameini as the third supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. This is a move of pure wartime logic. He isn't a high-ranking clerk, he's a man of the security apparatus deeply embedded with the IRGC. The response from the White House was immediate and blunt. President Trump told reporters, and I quote, if he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long. This creates a terrifying deadly paradox. Israel has already signaled that the hand of the state will pursue any successor, effectively making the Supreme Leadership a suicide seat. If Moshdaba cannot establish legitimacy while the B-2 bombers are still overhead, we could see a complete fracturing of the Iranian state. We aren't just talking about a government falling. We're talking about the potential for a Libyan-style vacuum in a country of 88 million people with a degraded yet still dangerous nuclear infrastructure. Where do we go from here? Our analysts have mapped out three distinct trajectories for the remainder of March. Scenario 1, the hormose clearing operation. If the blockade continues to choke the global economy, and remember, Goldman Sachs just warned this is no longer a short-term shock, the US Navy will be forced to transition from deterrence to clearing. This would involve a massive amphibious and aerial campaign to destroy every silk war missile battery and naval mine-laying facility along the Iranian coast. This is the boots on the ground scenario that Trump has refused to rule out. Scenario number two is the South Caucasus explosion. Watch the border near Nakchivan. If Iran strikes Azerbaijan again, it may trigger the Shusha Declaration. This would pull Turkia and by extension NATO's second largest army into a direct kinetic role. Turkey has already refused to allow its airspace to be used for strikes, but if their brother nation Azerbaijan is under fire, that strategic distance evaporates. And the last scenario, the internal implosion. This is the wild card. With the internet blackout in its 14th day and 3 million people displaced, the street in Iran is a tinderbox. If the Iranian people perceive the regime as being unable to protect the homeland or provide food, inflation is currently estimated to be hitting 150% in the black market. The revolution might happen from the inside before the Midnight Hammer even finishes its job. The Middle East we knew on February 27, 2026, is gone. We are no longer debating if there will be a new regional order, but rather who will survive to write the rules of it. We've seen 1,540 drones fired at the UAE. We've seen oil prices test the $150 American dollars nightmare scenario. We've seen the first hereditary succession in the history of the Islamic Republic. The stakes have never been higher for the global front. Before I sign off, a final statistic to leave you with. The International Energy Agency's release of 400 million barrels is the largest in human history. It is a sign that the world's leading economies are terrified. They are betting everything that this war ends in weeks, not months. If they are wrong, the economic map of the world will look as scarred as the runways in the Dubai International Airport. This has been the Global Front, and I'm your host, Arada Hassan. Stay informed, stay prepared, and keep your eyes on the horizon. I'll see you on the next front.